Climate change is accelerating more rapidly at the poles, leading to significant ice melt and differential warming in oceans and land, according to researcher Faranda.
Shifts in global temperatures are altering weather patterns, which in turn impact jet streams, Faranda noted.
Williams, a scientist from the University of Reading, is recognized for linking these changes in jet streams to increased turbulence, ultimately affecting flight operations, as pointed out by Faranda.
During his presentation at the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Williams emphasized the importance of examining vertical wind shear because the data indicates a clearer signal than surrounding noise.
“Understanding the implications of stronger wind shear is crucial since aircraft navigate through it,” he stated, projecting an image of a grounded jet that experienced engine loss due to severe clear-air turbulence. He reported a 55 percent rise in instances of severe turbulence since the 1970s.
Climate models predict that, under realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, a “hotspot” in the tropical upper troposphere will expand, resulting in a more pronounced midlatitude temperature gradient, Williams explained.
This upper tropospheric hotspot signifies enhanced warming, partially driven by increased water vapor from tropical oceans, intensifying temperature differentials in regions along major flight routes, including transatlantic flights.
If current warming trends persist, projections indicate that vertical wind shear could surge by 29 percent by 2100. Even if global emissions are cut in half by mid-century and continue to decline, the increase could still reach 17 percent, according to Williams.
“This signifies a notable rise in turbulence in the near future,” he warned.
Faranda shared that despite his own research and experiences with clear-air turbulence, he remains undeterred about flying. He highlighted that advancements in weather measurement and increased awareness about turbulence risks will contribute to safer flights. Additionally, evolving wing designs and aircraft construction could enhance resilience against turbulence.
“Generally, it’s possible to navigate these areas without significant consequences,” Faranda noted. However, given the forecast of more frequent and severe turbulence, he urged the continuation of observation programs.
He also expressed concern over the current global political climate, which has prompted discussions about reducing weather and climate monitoring instruments, potentially leading to poorer weather forecasts and riskier flights.
This story originally appeared on Inside Climate News.
