A recent report highlights that 17 out of 20 surveyed nations are set to increase their fossil fuel production by 2030. Eleven of these countries have revised their projections upwards in comparison to two years ago, indicating a troubling trend in global energy strategies.
The anticipated global outputs of coal, oil, and gas for 2030 exceed current climate targets significantly. The report suggests that these figures are 120 percent greater than what would align with pathways aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), and 77 percent above levels necessary to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Increased temperatures pose serious risks, including intensifying extreme weather and rising sea levels.
This year’s report has been published independently, marking a departure from earlier editions overseen by the United Nations Environment Program.
The analysis indicates a persistent global failure to curb fossil fuel consumption. The modeling scenarios employed are becoming outdated as nations continue to rely heavily on coal, oil, and gas. To meet climate goals, future emissions reductions would need to be much more aggressive than the current trajectories suggest.
Grant emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “We’re already going into sort of the red and burning up our debt.”
In 2022, three countries—China, the United States, and Russia—accounted for over half of the emissions tied to fossil fuel extraction, reflecting the significant impact of their energy policies.
Ira Joseph, a senior research associate at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, noted that the report’s focus on supply underscores a crucial element in the dynamics of global energy markets.
“Any type of tax breaks or subsidies, or however you want to label them, lowers the break-even cost for producing oil and gas,” Joseph explained. These reduced costs lead to increased supply, which consequently drives down prices and boosts demand. According to him, the report’s findings mirror this complex interplay in global energy production and consumption.
