Erin’s central pressure was in the 990s this time yesterday, and it’s now in the 920’s heading for the teens.
Browse PostsThis will make Erin the fastest deepening Atlantic hurricane before Sept 1st. Beating Emily 2005, by a lot.
— Sam Lillo (@samlillo.bsky.social) August 16, 2025 at 9:29 AM
As of Saturday, Hurricane Erin’s central pressure registered at 917 mb, positioning it as the second-most intense hurricane in the Atlantic over the past five decades for this timeframe, following only Hurricane Allen in 1980.
Increasing Frequency of Rapid Intensification
Experts predict that storms like Erin will become more frequent due to climate change. A 2019 study indicated that the intensification rates of the strongest 5 percent of Atlantic hurricanes increased by approximately 3 to 4 mph each decade from 1982 to 2009. The authors of this study, published in Nature Communications, noted the “detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates,” attributing some of this change to human activities.
Hurricane researchers generally agree that while the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes may not rise, climate-altering conditions could lead to more potent storms, such as Erin.
According to the US government’s Climate.gov, the intensification of tropical cyclones is linked to anthropogenic climate change. A coalition of scientists stated that “the proportion of severe TCs (Category 4 & 5) has increased, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change,” warning that more intense storms could lead to increased wind speeds, higher storm surges, and intensified rainfall. Model studies project a potential decline in lower-intensity cyclones, implying that the total number of tropical cyclones could remain stable or decrease slightly each year.
This year, overall activity in the tropical Atlantic has been below average. However, Erin’s strength and duration are likely to elevate seasonal activity, leading to levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy that meet or surpass normal expectations. The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks in early September, with the majority of storm formations occurring between early August and early October.
Forecast models suggest that more hurricanes could develop in the coming two weeks, though uncertainty remains regarding any potential land impacts.
