China has rapidly expanded its renewable energy capacity, surpassing that of the next 13 nations combined and holding four times the capacity of the United States. However, this substantial investment in renewables has yet to fully counterbalance the ongoing increase in fossil fuel consumption within the country. Recent findings from the NGO Carbon Brief indicate a potential turning point, with a reported drop in China’s carbon emissions over the past year, reflecting a one percent decrease compared to March of the previous year. This decline is largely attributed to the power sector, where renewable energy growth has outpaced rising electricity demand.
Historically, declines in China’s emissions have been linked to economic factors, such as those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 housing crisis. In contrast, the recent decrease appears to stem mainly from changes within the energy sector, which experienced a two percent reduction in emissions over the last year.
The findings presented by Carbon Brief are based on data collected from various official entities, including the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the National Energy Administration of China, and the China Electricity Council. Future growth projections are sourced from the China Wind Energy Association and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.
The analysis indicates that March 2024 marked the most recent peak in emissions. Following that point, total emissions have decreased by one percent—a shift that, while notable, could easily be reversed under changing circumstances. Nevertheless, the report underscores an accelerating impact from renewable energy sources, with clean power growth in the first quarter of 2025 contributing to a 1.6 percent decline compared to the same quarter from the previous year, outpacing the overall average reduction.
