Shortly after President Trump’s inauguration, vital health and environmental data that healthcare professionals and agriculturalists depend on began to vanish from federal websites. Concurrently, the Trump administration moved swiftly to scale back the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which halved funding and disrupted critical data streams used globally for famine prevention and disaster preparedness.
“Watching the websites come down and the data disappear raised our concerns — data embodies truth,” noted a former contractor who requested anonymity to freely express concerns. “Now, it’s easier for anyone to declare something as fact without the backing of data.”
The United States compiles extensive weather and climate data, which serve as a crucial resource for humanitarian efforts worldwide. This information is vital for predicting where famine may emerge due to droughts or crop failures, alerting communities to flash flooding hazards, and preparing for the hurricane season. Though there are hopes of restoring these systems, the abrupt changes during the Trump years have already hindered crucial relief operations.
Forecasting famine
The severe famine in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1980s claimed an estimated million lives in Ethiopia alone, leading to the establishment of the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET). This system synthesizes weather, agricultural, and market data to forecast potential famine situations, aiming to facilitate timely international aid to avert disaster.
In certain regions, such as Sudan, where over half the population is grappling with acute food insecurity linked to conflict and climate change, FEWS NET remains one of the few agencies generating timely famine updates to adapt to the ongoing situation.
“Without this system, decision-makers will rely on outdated data, leading to misallocation of resources and loss of life,” warned Tanya Boudreau, a former chief of party at FEWS NET. Aid workers require accurate forecasts to act appropriately. “By the time starvation sets in, it’s far too late to deliver food aid where it’s critically needed.”
The system faced severe disruption after the Trump administration imposed a sweeping halt on humanitarian assistance immediately post-inauguration. Although limited resources have been allocated to revive portions of it, the program remains underfunded, lacking permission to disseminate data as it had previously.
Upon taking office, Trump quickly took a hard stance against USAID, a key agency in humanitarian efforts since 1961. One of his first executive orders was to freeze foreign aid funding, citing disassociation with American interests.
“By the time starvation sets in, it’s far too late to deliver food aid where it’s critically needed.”
By March, cuts affected more than 80 percent of USAID’s programs under the Trump administration.
The State Department subsequently managed the remaining USAID program initiatives and provided a waiver for programs deemed “life-saving.” Though FEWS NET qualified for this waiver, it fell short of reviving the program’s operations.
Chemonics International, responsible for managing the early warning system, reportedly faced financial discrepancies for services rendered between October and January. Field staff across more than 20 nations were released without the funds to return. While payments due for prior work were finally released in April, future funding remains uncertain, jeopardizing the functionality of FEWS NET.
The operational efficacy of this system relies on collaboration among various federal agencies that gather data via satellite. Tools such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index and contributions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are crucial for analyzing agricultural hydration needs.
Experts have raised alarms regarding the potential erosion of these vital partnerships amid the administrative changes under Trump. The termination of FEWS NET’s contract for modeling tools, which materialize household and market vulnerabilities, is expected to result in less rigorous local assessments.
Key components of FEWS NET have yet to resume following their termination, including a central data hub for disseminating famine forecasts and supporting data to the public. Without restoration, Chemonics will face the challenge of alternative dissemination methods, such as developing a constrained new website or reverting to email distributions.
Previously, FEWS NET’s forecasts were broadly shared in PDFs, but the data hub enabled a diverse audience — ranging from government officials to local aid workers — to access essential information for analysis tailored to their contexts, along with a historical data repository.
At that time, USAID prioritized the “democratization of data,” but the ongoing unavailability of FEWS NET’s data warehouse has left vital resources inaccessible. “Every day feels like a step backwards,” the contractor lamented.
Should the program proceed in a diminished capacity, the chaos experienced will hinder famine forecasting efforts for years to come. “We are experiencing an unprecedented gap in coverage, one that will distort historical records indefinitely,” Boudreau warned. “Continuity in tracking food insecurity over time depends significantly on having last month’s data.”
In a communication to Technology News, a State Department representative indicated that the granted waiver for “life-saving” work does not reflect a conclusive determination regarding each program’s future but aims to keep them afloat during an extensive assessment.
Hurricane season looms without warning systems in place
For flash flooding emergencies, accurate predictions are typically narrowed to six to twelve hours in advance. The need for current data for fast action is critical, often leaving inadequate time for property protection, as highlighted by Konstantine Georgakakos, an adjunct professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and board member of the Hydrologic Research Center, which designed the global Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS).
“There’s no profit involved here. It’s about saving lives,” Georgakakos emphasized.
Globally, many regions lack adequate equipment, including rainfall gauges capable of delivering fast and precise observations necessary to warn communities about flash flood threats. When compared to drought forecasting, gauges for flash floods necessitate a finer resolution and lower latency for useful timely alerts.
Since its establishment in 2009, radar and satellite remote sensing have bridged data gaps through the FFGS, which gathers local warning system inputs across approximately 70 countries.
“There’s no profit involved here. It’s about saving lives.”
Before the Trump administration, the FFGS was expanding to include an additional 30 countries, extending its reach to parts of Africa and Pacific Islands. However, this momentum has slowed without funding from USAID.
Current local warning infrastructure may persist for as long as possible without additional assistance, yet the FFGS lacks the resources to maintain or upgrade existing hardware, which generally has a limited lifespan of five to eight years. Their sustainability is contingent on the continued sharing of weather data from U.S. forecasting agencies.
“They are vulnerable to disruption if data sharing ceases or any other challenge arises without support for resolution,” asserted Theresa Modrick Hansen, chief operating officer at the Hydrologic Research Center, which worked collaboratively on the FFGS.
The system has saved “countless lives and safeguarded livelihoods,” according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s statement shared with Technology News. “The potential loss of operational support for FFGS worldwide is a major setback for all,” the statement emphasized, recognizing Pakistan’s previous devastating flooding and increased flood risk due to climate change.
The loss of support from USAID has also raised alarms ahead of the hurricane season, with substantial implications for disaster preparedness in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the agency has facilitated the Regional Disaster Assistance Program (RDAP) since 1989. With hurricane season approaching, this program traditionally provided drills, supplies, and access for people with disabilities to evacuation plans. However, it was terminated this year along with a complementary NOAA initiative.
“There’s significant anxiety as we approach hurricane season regarding current preparedness levels,” a federal employee mentioned anonymously due to fear of reprisal.
Investments in early warning systems and preparedness have been shown to save tens of thousands of lives during various disasters, not to mention the economic advantages of mitigating loss. The United Nations aims to achieve universal access to early warning systems by 2027, positioning them as a cost-effective strategy for safeguarding lives and livelihoods.
There are significant stakes for the U.S. in providing disaster preparedness aid. Humanitarian crises can lead to increased regional instability, conflict, and migration. It typically costs much less to prevent unrecoverable damage and loss of life than to react to its aftermath. Hence, early warning systems can beneficially impact strategies such as the Trump administration’s focus on cost reduction and migration control.
“A country in crisis typically results in cross-border migration during food emergencies,” stated Andrew Natsios, an academic at Texas A&M and former head of USAID. “The American public is often unaware of the implications of international aid, as its impact occurs far from their view. Yet, these dynamics profoundly influence domestic situations.”
Are you a current or former USAID employee? Reach out securely with tips to Justine Calma via Signal at bqe210.91.
