Experts have raised concerns that cuts in funding could lead to the migration of modeling capabilities overseas, potentially stifling scientific advancements and causing a drain of expertise.
Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, warned that if the U.S. loses the talent in its scientific community, countries like China may begin closing the gap. “It would have been very hard for them to have a more respected scientific organization or scientific system than the U.S. did,” Dessler noted. He emphasized that America’s research universities and government laboratories are highly regarded globally.
However, Dessler cautioned that this prestige could diminish if the country’s expertise is compromised.
Scientists working on E3SM, an ambitious modeling project, aim to examine how the Earth evolves over time and how conditions vary within long-term forecasts. For instance, while average temperatures may rise, occurrences of extreme cold in places like Colorado can still occur. Their ultimate aspiration is to integrate various scientific disciplines—chemistry, physics, and biology—to develop a “digital twin” of the planet, portraying Earth as accurately as possible.
This is an ambitious undertaking, particularly given that the current phase of development took over a decade of programming and refinement. “The models are very extensive regarding the amount of code involved,” stated Lawrence, an earth system scientist associated with NCAR. Although Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which oversees the development of the model, declined to provide comments, a lab spokesperson indicated that interviews about E3SM are currently unavailable. The spokesperson did not address inquiries about the reasons behind this policy.
Despite these challenges, Lawrence understands the importance of his work, having previously led a similar initiative known as the Community Earth System Model, which served as a foundation for E3SM.
