Researchers have demonstrated the ability to assess the effects of emissions over a defined period. Callahan and Mankin highlight that internal studies conducted by oil companies as early as 1980 indicated that climate change could pose significant challenges. They calculated the impacts of emissions from that point onward, showcasing the adaptability of their analytical approach.
The researchers utilize empirical data that correlates rising temperatures with economic repercussions. “Recent peer-reviewed studies have applied econometric methods to establish causal connections between climate-related incidents and various outcomes, including income reduction, diminished agricultural productivity, increased mortality rates, and stunted economic growth,” Callahan and Mankin explain. These findings can be leveraged to estimate costs associated with flooding, crop failures, and other financial damages. Additionally, the team can evaluate individual climate events for which economic impacts have been documented separately.
Significant Damages
To carry out their analysis, the researchers create numerous individual models that collectively yield the most likely costs and their probable ranges. Initially, they convert emissions from each company into their corresponding impact on global mean surface temperature. This temperature change is then assessed for its effects on extreme weather conditions, leading to estimates of economic damages tied to occurrences of excessive heat.
In their example involving Chevron, the researchers found that by 2020, the company’s emissions contributed to a rise of 0.025° C in that year’s global temperature. Extending this analysis back to the years 1991 through 2020, they estimate damages between approximately $800 billion and $3.6 trillion, with the majority of the economic harm being experienced by nations located in tropical regions.
Continuing their work with the five largest carbon emitters, they found that Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, and ExxonMobil each incurred damages of roughly $2 trillion. BP was found to have caused about $1.45 trillion in damages. Overall, when evaluating a total of 111 major carbon producers, Callahan and Mankin estimate cumulative damages at around $28 trillion.
