Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was launched on October 25, making its debut across multiple platforms, including PC, PS4, PS5, Xbox One, and Xbox Series S/X. In a historic first, this installment marks the initial availability of a Call of Duty game on Xbox Game Pass on the very day of its release. Microsoft aims for this addition to enhance the appeal of its subscription service, projecting a significant influx of new subscribers following the game’s launch. Estimates suggest that Black Ops 6 could potentially attract up to four million additional subscribers to Game Pass.
Impact of Black Ops 6 on Game Pass Subscriptions
Industry experts consulted by GamesIndustry.biz weighed in on the anticipated effects of Black Ops 6 joining Xbox Game Pass right at launch. Many analysts predict that the game will bring in millions of new subscribers, albeit with a possible decrease in direct unit sales of the popular military shooter.
In a report released last week, Michael Pachter, a leading analyst from Wedbush, indicated that Black Ops 6 might add between three to four million new subscribers to Game Pass. Nevertheless, he also mentioned a potential decline in sales by as much as six million, operating under the assumption that 25 percent of Game Pass subscribers would have likely purchased the game without the subscription option.
Other analysts shared similar sentiments, although some offered more cautious forecasts regarding the game’s ability to attract new users to Microsoft’s subscription model. Piers Harding-Rolls, chief games analyst at Ampere, projected a 10 percent increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscribers following the game’s release, noting that this growth would encompass both new subscribers and those upgrading from lower tiers, which do not allow access to first-party titles upon release.
Harding-Rolls expressed that while the inclusion of Call of Duty could initially impact sales negatively and incur costs for Microsoft, the in-game monetization potential is likely to reach a broader audience through Game Pass. “There is no doubt that adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive, at least initially, for Microsoft. However, Call of Duty is increasingly a live-service game that monetizes effectively in-game. Microsoft will be trading premium full-game sales in exchange for a larger audience that can be monetized in-game,” he explained.
Despite the promising outlook, analysts agree that the long-term effectiveness of integrating Call of Duty into Game Pass hinges on Microsoft’s ability to retain players on the platform well after the initial excitement surrounding Black Ops 6 fades. There is concern that many users might choose to exit Game Pass or downgrade their subscriptions following their time with the game.
Earlier this year, Sarah Bond, Xbox president, confirmed that Game Pass had reached a milestone of 34 million subscribers. Black Ops 6 is set to be accessible on Game Pass Ultimate for Xbox, PC, and Cloud users.
This move comes after Microsoft’s substantial acquisition of Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion late last year, following a prolonged regulatory review process involving the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority. The company stated earlier this year that it plans to introduce Activision titles to Game Pass, commencing with Diablo IV.
